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Working at SANDAG | Job Openings | Email Notification | How to Apply | FAQ

Principal of Forecasts and Estimates

Salary Range:
Annual Salary Range: $120,449 to $186,697

Close Date: Open Until Filled

Role

The Principal, will lead a team of highly-talented professionals who develop and maintain regional and sub-regional models, produce estimates and forecasts of demographic, economic, and land use data, and perform complex analyses for projects and studies. The economic and demographic modeling function is highly integrated with the transportation modeling function, and this position works closely with the Manager of Transportation Analysis and Modeling, and project managers throughout the organization to support short- and long-term regional planning activities. The ability to provide strategic leadership and technical expertise for program enhancement efforts and manage multiple inter-departmental and cross-functional project teams is an essential part of the role.

 

Overview of Data Science Department

The Data Science Department provides SANDAG member agencies, elected officials, other organizations, and the public with information and technical resources for regional planning, funding, and policymaking efforts. The department represents a broad range of expertise from land use and transportation modeling, programming, and website development, applied social research, public safety, demographics, and economics. The common theme is data. The information the department gathers, analyzes, produces, delivers, and maintains is essential to the success of SANDAG.

The Forecasts and Estimates team develop socioeconomic forecasts of population, housing, employment, income, and land use, and conducts analyses to support research and planning studies as well as policy development initiatives.

 

Job Responsibilities

  • Manage a service-oriented modeling program that focuses on providing consistent, accurate information to customers within the agency and throughout the San Diego region; coordinate, review, and evaluate staff, resources, budget, work plans, and projects assigned to the team.
  • Work in close collaboration with SANDAG executive team members, internal project partners and clients, and consultants to manage and coordinate multiple program areas and long-range projects with competing and interdependent timelines.
  • Supervise, mentor, train, and provide career development opportunities for a team of professional and technical staff with expertise in regional economics and demography, programming, and modeling.
  • Provide strategic vision and technical expertise in the field of regional data modeling systems and participate in the development of public policy recommendations on issues such as population growth, transportation, housing, environmental management, economic development, public safety, and binational coordination.
  • Oversee economic and demographic model development, estimation, programming, calibration, validation, application, and documentation of forecasting models.
  • Oversee and conduct complex research, statistical analysis, and modeling related to socioeconomic forecasts, and demographic and economic analysis.
  • Ensure modeling technologies, tools, and analytical capabilities are reliable, credible, and are effective for supporting long-range planning efforts such as The Regional Plan, Regional Growth Forecasts, various grant programs, and other initiatives supporting affordable housing, sustainable communities, smart growth, and other such initiatives.
  • Oversee the development and maintenance of technical documentation for economic and demographic forecasting programs and procedures.
  • Develop and implement new or revised programs, policies, procedures, and methods of operation; monitor and evaluate various systems and processes; recommend and implement enhancements to ensure effective systems and services are in place.
  • Coordinate and/or participate on inter-departmental and inter-agency teams assembled for modeling, analyses, and planning related projects; foster collaborative working relationships with local jurisdictions, Caltrans, and other public agencies.
  • Prepare and present written, oral, and visual reports to policy and stakeholder committees, member agencies, community groups, private organizations, and members of the public.
  • Develop Requests for Proposals, scopes of work, and project budgets; evaluate competitive project proposals and make recommendations for consultant selection; manage project consultants and ensure projects are completed on schedule, within the prescribed budget.
  • Coordinate the development and administration of the annual budget for the team; forecast additional funds needed for staffing, equipment, materials, and supplies; monitor and approve expenditures; prepare and implement budgetary adjustments as necessary.
  • Execute, manage, and maintain consultant contracts and agreements for program area; develop Requests for Proposals, scopes of work, and project budgets; evaluate competitive project proposals and make recommendations for consultant selection.

 

Experience and Qualifications

  • A bachelor’s degree in economics, demography, geography, planning, mathematics, or a related field; advanced degrees are preferred.
  • Minimum of seven years of recent experience leading regional land use, real estate, demographic, or economic forecasting and estimations, including two years of supervisory experience.
  • Experience supervising and evaluating the work of professional and technical personnel; experience providing administrative and professional leadership and direction for assigned programs.
  • Demonstrated experience managing or leading a comprehensive, service-oriented modeling program; ability to integrate excellent technical abilities and knowledge with a big-picture understanding of the regional planning process; familiarity with formalized data governance processes and procedures.
  • Demonstrated experience monitoring program and project performance measures including budget, schedule, and resource requirements; experience coordinating project teams and monitoring work performance; experience providing project coordination, project control, and support for assigned initiatives.
  • Demonstrated experience managing a complex system of regional data models; ability to deploy state-of-the art methods for efficient maintenance, quality control procedures, and to verify the accuracy and reliability of the tools.
  • Knowledge of the principles, practices, and objectives of regional planning, and experience leading staff in producing estimates and forecasts of demographic, economic, land use, and real estate data, and performing complex analysis for projects and studies.
  • Direct experience in the development and use of regional forecasting models and sub-regional growth allocation models; experience with model development, estimation, programming, calibration, validation, application, and documentation of economic and demographic forecasting models.
  • Knowledge of statistical theory, methods, and programs used to analyze data and estimate various econometric parameters for demographic and economic models.
  • Knowledge of economic forecasting applications and software, and computer programming languages such as Python, SQL, SPSS, SAS, and R.
  • Experience communicating and presenting highly technical information effectively, both orally and in writing, to a broad range of audiences.
  • Knowledge of the principles and practices of budget preparation and administration; ability to develop accurate budget projections with subsequent administration and control of expenditures; ability to analyze and interpret financial data and prepare reports and recommendations.

 

How To Apply

Interested candidates may apply for this position by completing a SANDAG Employment Application.

In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), SANDAG will accommodate persons who require assistance in order to apply for a position at SANDAG.

Applicants requiring an accommodation due to a disability during any stage of the recruitment and selection process, including requesting this document and related application materials in an alternative format, should make their needs known by contacting Human Resources at hr@sandag.org, (619) 699-1900, (619) 699-1904 (TTY), or fax (619) 699-6905.

 

Benefits

SANDAG offers comprehensive benefits, to include health, dental, and vision insurance as well as employee assistance, wellness, and work/life balance programs.  Additionally, SANDAG offers the following:

  • 9/80 flexible work schedule
  • Pay-for-performance merit increases
  • CalPERS pension plan with employer and employee contributions
  • Excellent health insurance options for employees and their eligible dependents
  • Free dental and vision insurance for employees and their eligible dependents
  • Education Assistance of up to $5,250 a year for regular employees
  • Free transit pass for use throughout the San Diego region, bus, Rapid Express, Trolley, and COASTER
  • Paid time off including 12 paid holidays, 2 floating holiday days, generous paid time off (PTO) per year, depending on length of service
  • The employee selected for this position will be offered a three-year At-Will employment contract, which provides an annual $5,000 contribution to their defined contribution plan.

 

Further Information

In compliance with the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, applicants hired by SANDAG must show acceptable proof of identity and evidence of authorization to work in the United States.

The selected candidate can anticipate a driving record check upon hire, and approximately annually thereafter. The results of the check may determine whether the selected candidate will be permitted to drive for SANDAG business.

SANDAG requires all new employees to be fully vaccinated for COVID 19 within 45 days of hire.

SANDAG employees are expected to work in-person in our San Diego office; there are telework options available, as well as a 9/80 work schedule (every other Monday off).

 

Contact Us 

401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101-4231
(619) 699-1900 | TTY/TDD: (888) 722-4889
sandag.org
hr@sandag.org

 

SANDAG is an Equal Opportunity Employer

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